Jeff rubin why your world is about to get

He was one of the first economists to accurately predict soaring oil prices back in and is now one of the world's most sought-after energy experts. He lives in Toronto. As Canadians are becoming all too aware, the spectre of a recession, no matter the definition, looms large during an election campaign.

Despite such prominence, the recent debate made it abundantly clear that none of the candidates understand why the economy stopped growing in the first half of the year and they have even less [ That may well be the case, but it does overlook at least one key silver lining.

His most later book, The Carbon Bubble , too made the success list. The conclusion comes out to brace ourselves for changes in lifestyle as our world is about to get a whole lot smaller. So are you saying that author has quoted that increasing oil prices is triggering de globalisation.

Could you please quote this ine with an illustration? Today price of your 1 tonne fish is say rupees 20 lakhs, adding transportation charges. As supply of oil reduce, the transportation cost will rise to rupees 30 lakhs for same volume. I will stop purchasing fish from you,so will the rest of your customers. Causing De-globalization. Interesting, but that does not take into account a whole strong drive towards renewable energy that is expected to substitute, if not replace the conventional fuels like oil and gas.

It is quite likely that nations will switch to alternate energy sources for transportation before de-globalisation concept starts gaining any ground in reality. Please enable JavaScript! Bitte aktiviere JavaScript! Por favor,activa el JavaScript! Economics July 03, PAGES - He lives in Toronto. But even the deepest recessions last barely over a year.

Those prices will be on their way back up soon enough. And however you want to measure the energy in that fish— calories, miles, joules, barrels of oil— it is inevitable that the price of fish is going to go up as well. The seafood on your plate depends on cheap energy. And what is true of salmon is true of just about everything else. All you have to do to find an example is look around. Every morning when I head out to go to work, I see thousands of examples: the commuters making their way downtown from far- flung suburbs.

The city I live in happens to be intersected by one of the busiest highways in North America— half a million cars make their way through its most heavily trafficked interchanges every day. Are those commuters going to be living or working where they are today when oil prices inevitably soar again? And if they are, will they still be driving cars? Either our living arrangements or our transportation options are going to have to change.

In other words, our whole way of life depends on the price at the pumps, and that price depends on an uninterrupted supply of oil. Think about that as you drive to work. Have a look at all those car dealerships, the gas stations and garages, the drive- thrus and big- box stores surrounded by huge parking lots.

Try to imagine your life— picking up dry cleaning, taking your kids to hockey, going to Home Depot on the weekend, heading to the cottage in the summer—without a car. I say a small sense, because not only does your car burn energy, it is made from energy. Just building your car requires as much energy as it burns in several years. Add to that the fact that the plastics and paints and interior elements are made from petrochemicals derived from oil, and the picture becomes clearer.

The house you live in is probably powered by electricity generated, at least in part, from hydrocarbons, and is almost certainly heated with natural gas or oil. The clothes you wear to work were probably made in some distant land and shipped here using relatively cheap oil, just as the coffee beans that went to make your latte were grown in a far- off country where the sun shines brighter and the labor is much cheaper, and then were shipped here.

Despite the steady barrage of climate- change news and a growing sense that our affluent lifestyle may have unpleasant consequences for the environment, few of us stop to consider how just about every facet of our lives is built around our energy consumption.

Nearly everything we do is inextricably bound to our use of energy. That means that the global economy runs on oil, because the global economy is about moving things around the world. And the reason the global economy has put all its eggs in one basket is that there is no other basket. As of right now, everything— from the salmon on your plate to the entire model of a global economy— depends on keeping the oil flowing. Now, what happens when the price of salmon goes up?

You buy less of it. And when the price of gasoline goes up, you drive less. When the price of clothes or computers or anything else goes up, everybody buys less. And when everybody spends less, you have a recession. High energy prices cause recessions. A recession is not the end of the world, of course, though if you are one of the many people who has lost a job or seen your investments melt away, it can seem that way.

Still, history keeps showing that the economy recovers, usually after a few quarters, and life goes on. But the history of the modern global economy is not all that long, and it is worth asking whether the patterns we have seen in past decades are ones we can expect to go on repeating into the future.

We have seen high oil prices trigger recessions before, and in each case the medicine to cure a sick economy has been ready at hand: cheap new supply. Right now, you need oil to make money and you need money to buy oil. If oil is too expensive, it becomes harder and harder to make money, whether you do that by driving a cab or by selling pineapples.

And if there is no money to buy oil, the price of oil goes down. But as long as you need oil to make money and as chapter 7 will show, you do , the price of oil is going right back up once the money starts flowing again.